Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Another Tuesday Primary

Here we all are again, yet another Tuesday coming up to view like a fast moving freight train. This time we get to contemplate the various merits of Bluegrass Country vs. the left coast. Yes Kentucky and Oregon are about to weigh in on the merits of Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama.

Obama looks like is going to get no love from the stalwart Democrats of Appalachia again. Just a week ago the good citizens of West Virginia tossed a lump of coal right at his head. Luckily for Barack, John Edwards was there to tend to the knot on the chosen one’s head. This time around there is the People’s Republic of Oregon will have Obama’s back.

Some Clinton sites have claimed that Oregon will not be the blow out that everyone expects it to be. They have the polls so it must be true. Small problem, those same polls showed Clinton “narrowing the gap in NC” and pulling ahead in Indiana. Clinton got thumped badly in NC and only narrowly won Indiana. He margin in Indiana was so thin that it may have actually been provided by “Operation Chaos” ditto heads from the land of Rush.

Final results from the Indiana secretary of state: Hillary Clinton 645,365 Barack Obama 630,946 a separation of 14,419 out of 1,276,311 votes or 1.12%. In short the results were nothing to brag about for a woman who was polling up to 5% better than her opponent on the day before the primary election.

This week there are a total of 103 delegates up for grabs. As Hillary is 305 short of her goal and Barack is 116 short of his we are guaranteed yet another few weeks of fun and frivolity. Of course all that really needs to happen is the 185 uncommitted Superdelegates to commit to Barack and we have a nominee. But these coy supers are unwilling to vow their love to anyone as of yet.

Look at the math though. Even if Hillary were to nab all the uncommitted supers she would still be short of her goal. She would still need to pick up 120 delegates else where. There are 179 delegates to be nabbed in the last of the primaries but those will be split only somewhat in Hillary’s favor. That is because she does well in Puerto Rico with its 55 delegates and Barack’s answer is the non-entities of SD and Montana which offer up a paltry 31 delegates between them. Still figure this week to be a wash as far as the delegates go. Hillary might eek out an absolute advantage but will not make a significant dent in Barack’s nearly 200 delegate lead. Meanwhile, Barack continues to subject Hillary to the death of a thousand cuts. Each day yet another Super goes over to the dark side; each day Hillary’s math gets a little worse.

Clintonistas will of course drag in the subject Michigan and Florida. Clinton supporters are furiously spinning away on “counting Florida and Michigan” They keep pointing to the rules committee as some great earth shattering event that must be obeyed. But unless they find a way to totally queer the results; the mountain will spit out a rather anemic mouse. The rules as written require a “punishment” of 50% of the delegates. That means that the best Hillary can do is half of the usual total. Hillary is not going to get that. Hillary will get some proportion of the one half of the penalized total. Florida and Michigan will be counted but the numbers will not bring joy to the Clintons.

While we are on the subject of these two fine states, let’s us put another Clinton supporter talking point to rest. The Corporate media is not queering the delegate count by “ignoring” the vote in Florida. They are not miss-reporting it. Until the rules committee reaches it Solomon-like decision no one knows where the delegates will fall and what the “true” delegate will end up at. Right now the number of 2025 is the best number. Granted there are plenty of other reasons for the Clintonistas to be angry at the Corporate media (Chris Matthews anyone?) but the reporting on the delegate math is not one.

What is even odder are the Clintons spinning Carl Rove’s pronouncements to their advantage. Exactly why are Hillary and friends giving a megaphone to the Turd Blossom? He is not exactly a neutral observer people. But he has provided the most sacred map. The Clintonistas keep pointing to the map. That map has become a holy relic of their faith. They wave it around to ward off the evil curse of reasoning and logic. The map is bunk. It has next to no relevance to the general election. By November so much will have shifted as to make that map as dog-eared, coffee-stained, and useless as an old Rand-McNally from the Carter years.

Ever since Texas Team Clinton has played a delaying game. It is a game of just wait until. Click off the list of supposed show stoppers that did not end the primary circus. There was Texas and Ohio, then there was Pennsylvania, then Indiana, then WVa. and now Kentucky. Each time Clinton got farther behind in the delegate count. Wins be Clinton in one place were easily erased elsewhere. As the months have gone by the incline Clinton had to navigate became that much steeper. Now we are at the point were even her blow-outs become pyrrhic victories. Edwards big-footed his endorsement right after WVa. for a reason. Ditto for Senator Byrd. Expect another big-foot to stomp Hillary flat after Kentucky. When some one as loyal to Clinton as Patti Solis Doyle is finding a way to join team Obama you’re in deep, deep, deep Kimchi.

What will be the next “wait until” for the Clintonistas? The rules committee; is that the new marker? But what happens when that committee hands over even less than half the delegate baby to momma Clinton? Will the Clintons march on to the last primaries in the full knowledge that Puerto Rico is a very slim reed to stake a national campaign on? Will the Clintons go all the way to a Gotterdammerung in Colorado? They claim they have the right; Ted Kennedy went all the way to the convention with less way back in 1980. And Ted Kennedy lost the nomination and was pivotal in sinking the Carter Presidency. Ted Kennedy helped to elect Ronald Reagan. Even with the Iranian hostage crisis, a united Democratic party could have beaten the Republicans in 1980. Kennedy tore the Democratic Party apart; the convention fight weakened Carter in the general. What followed was the thirty year Republican nightmare. A fight on the Democratic convention floor will lead to only one thing- a victory for John McCain.

There is a way for this to be avoided. Clinton is the key. In a back handed way she has already put date certain for the end of her run. She needs to stick by it. If by she can not move enough delegates into her column by mid June to win outright she needs to fold her tent. She needs to do this even if there are still undecided delegates to be gained. She is the one who is behind; she needs to make the case. If she can’t she should have the good grace to retire. Fighting on means not only she eventually looses but that the whole party looses. The ultimate number is days until November; it is the only number that matters now.

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