Friday, November 18, 2011

Civil War In Seria

CAIRO — The Syrian uprising against authoritarian President Bashar Assad appears headed toward a Libya-style civil war, with dissidents increasingly using violence against the government's forces and no apparent letup in the government's deadly crackdown despite a renewed Arab push for an end to the bloodshed.
In November alone, the Syrian government has reported at least 108 deaths of soldiers, police and other security forces in attacks by "armed terrorist groups," while army defectors calling themselves the Free Syrian Army claimed this week to have conducted attacks on several government targets, including a military intelligence compound, an especially brazen move.

This is going to be really bad. If Syria collapses in to chaos, all sorts of unpleasant things will follow. Lebanon goes kerflooey, Jordan goes off the rails, Iraq gets even messier, and Iran; well let's not go their right now--way too grim to consider that right now. Plus Syria shares a border with  the 900 pound Gorilla in the room, Israel. What will the Jewish state do if its Baathist neighbor collapses in heap of internecine conflict? With Bibi in charge, bet on Israel doing something epically foolish. 

The US is very much on the outside looking in on this one. Not much either SoS Clinton or President Obama can do. Of course their will be no end of moronic NeCon chattering on what should be done, how we absolutely must intervene. Will Obama go there? Will he be dragged into this mess by the course of events, like he was in Libya? The humanitarian rational for going in to Libya is not looking all that bright now, is it? How do you intervene in Libya when the risk of mass death was theoretical and not intervene in Syria where the death and destruction are all too real? Close your eyes gentle reader, grasp the safety bar in a grip of steel, we are about to go on the mother of all E ticket rides.
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