Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The Wait Is Nearly Over

This is it, the day that Arizona and Michigan have their primaries. This is the only poll that matters. From the tea leaves of the polls it looks to be a nail-biter. I can tell you one thing, if Mitt goes down in Michigan it will because of his latest bit of foot-in-mouth disease. The NASCAR quote brings in stark relief what a out of touch swell Willard Romney is.

It has been really weird following the Mittsters messaging in MI. He spent many years living in the state. His dad was an institution working for an institution. But Mitt's exclusive, elite upbringing in Michigan has made him an alien in his home state. The truly bizarre Romney ramblings, love those tree, and the whole Mormon thing have to be off-putting to an electorate that is deeply working class, and more deeply rooted in the soil than Romney is.

The run up today has been typical for Elephant electioneering as practiced in 2012; down and dirty. It's been a mud fest with both candidates carpet bombing the air-waves with negative ads. Mitt has the advantage in the shear volume of negative ads, outspending Rick 3 to 1; but is it enough? Santorum's blue-collar cred and his cultural conservative are much more authentic than Romney's attempts to rub elbows with the hoi polloi. Plus has that momentum thing going for him.

In a way Santorum has already won. Romney is deeply damaged goods. That a man running for president for six years has to fight tooth and nail to win his home state, and by a narrow margin, speaks volumes about the fundamental weakness of Willard Romney. Even if Romney wins, it a political death march for him all the way to the convention. By the time Romney wraps the whole thing up, it may be a pointless venture; a Pyrrhic victory. Romney may be so lost in the far right field that he cannot sprint to the political middle, even with a rocket pack.

Yes the Elephants will put on quite a charge, they will bring out the faithful to eject that evil, Communist, Marxist, Socialist, Muslim, Radical Leftist, America Hating Obama but the Republicans are no more than 40% of the electorate when you figure in "Independents" who somehow always vote for the GOP. That leaves the other 40% who vote for Donkeys without fail, and the unwashed middle of up to 20% that will be scared witless by a Republican Party that has obviously gone over the edge. Instead of a nail-biter that everyone expects, the general could turn out to be an Elephant grave yard.

It is a little early for that gloom and doom scenario being anything other than the fondest wish of the DNC, but this election has proven to be a lot more volatile than anyone predicted. The economy is still in the hurt locker, and the natives are still very restless. We will see a snap shot of exactly how restless the natives are tonight.
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